Have we found the Holy Grail of basketball stats? In Part 5 of the Thinking Basketball stats series, we dive into the entire world of plus-minus as a way to determine impact or value. Is single-game plus-minus any good? Full season vs. on/off data? How do we account for teammates? And if we make the right adjustments, do we have an ideal one-number stat for ranking NBA players?
Stats series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtzZl14BrKjTJZdubjNEY5jU0fGOiy51x
Rob Antle summarizing RAPM: https://basketballstat.home.blog/2019/08/14/regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-rapm/
Daniel Myers on APMs: http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2011/nba-stats/a-review-of-adjusted-plusminus-and-stabilization/
Joe Sill’s paper using Ridge Regression: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/joeSillSloanSportsPaperWithLogo.pdf
Justin Jacobs series on Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
Deep Dive on Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus I: Introductory Example
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus Part III: What Had Really Happened Was…
Exercising Error: Quantifying Statistical Tests Under RAPM (Part IV)
WOWYR primer: http://www.backpicks.com/2016/09/06/ii-historical-impact-introducing-wowyr/
Support at Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball
Podcast: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-taylor/thinking-basketball-podcast (available on iTunes, Spotify, etc.)
Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.
Player art by @CrumpledJumper
Music: Music by Jordan Ciurcovich (Forest) & The Way Forward, 80s Hairlight (Instrumental)