Value: After Hours S02 E06: Greenwald on Competition, Oil Pops the Bubble, Jack Henry JKHY

Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, Bill Brewster and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at

About Jake: Jake is a partner at Farnam Street.
Jake’s website:
Jake’s podcast:
Jake’s Twitter:
Jake’s book: The Rebel Allocator

About Bill: Bill runs Sullimar Capital Group, a family investment firm.
Bill’s website:
Bill’s Twitter: @BillBrewsterSCG

Hi, I’m Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations.
We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success.




Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®.
He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (, Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (, and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) ( He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.
He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).


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Hello guys,

altough I do not always understand what you are saying [VR = visiual reality?, latin, thought processes – Bill is sometimes too fast for me ;)]. Keep up the entertaining and informative talk. At the end of each episode I am always looking forward to another one. You are all great: I love to see Bill fight with struggle, I admire Jakes ability to question perceptions and admire Tobias experience and insights. So much to complements, I am not sorry to say I do not have beef for you, but a question:

How did you come up with the definition of your personal stock universe. Meaning there are several methodologies in the world to search for stocks: growth, value, momentum, … but how did you decided where to apply your methodology.
Let's take Tobias for example: If I understand correctly, Tobias uses the Aquires Mutliple to find deep undervalued stock to start his process, but where? The 1000 largest stocks in the world (as on the Aquires Multiple website), only US stocks which have gone down 60%, only small cap emerging market stocks – since they theoretically have large upside and your stemina is build for the volatility, do you use someone elses work as a start, … ?

See for a methodocial approach to "stock picking" it is too mindless to just use the S&P500 without a logical argumentation behind the decision.

Raise rates -> stronger dollar (carry) -> weaker commodities -> lower pv on RE stocks & bonds. Need inflation to contemplate raising. Negative Japan & EU and still no inflation. 30yr yield points to a deflation story. Tech increasingly displacing human capital, unfunded pensions, average retirement savings, Social Security 2037, medical & college tuition inflation versus wage growth, and student debt all deflationary pressures. Maybe too foil hatty & too much Jack Ryan to suggest our government controls oil price to limit Russian, Venezuelan and Middle Eastern power.

Oil might be with us for a while but coal is about to get destroyed. The CEO of the US's largest utility said, back in October, that the cost of building new solar + wind + storage was cheaper than continuing to run existing coal plants. And solar is continuing on its Moore's Law like curve of dropping 20+% in price every year, so it's going to be not "just a bit cheaper" but "way cheaper" very soon. The end of coal is coming fast. (That same CEO, Jim Robo, said he thinks we may get to 50% renewables by 2030.)

P.S. What is the theme music?

good stuff again this week.

– it's all imaginary. everyone's story is just as real as the next one.
– i wasn't sure about jake in season 1. i was wrong and you have great takes. i'll be putting in a market order.
– bill likes company culture but also likes BUD.
– i'm just biding time in a bad work environment but this show makes it worth it. thanks guys.

Never heard some many Bill Brewster nuggets all wrapped up in 1 hour : my top 2 Brewster nuggets (not the exact words) HAVE to be 1)A lot of old money managers want to impress younger people by not holding OIL 2)we're in inception and it's controlled by ELON MUSK -which explains a lot of things

re: the Gurufocus feature. Reminds me of Geraldine Weiss. She founded IQT and wrote the book 'Dividends Don't Lie', which might be of interest. It did the same thing, but with dividend yields and showed that high quality dividend growth stocks tended to trade in steady yield bands, from high to low and back again. Every stock's band was different though, of course. Not perfect, but fascinating nonetheless and another, somewhat heterodox by modern standards, conception of value. IQT applied it successfully for decades under her leadership. Weiss was also an OG; first woman to start a newsletter on Wall Street, great long term record, used to play bridge with Buffett etc.

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